THE CURSE OF THE ANOINTED SUCCESSOR: WHY BAUCHI’S POLITICAL HISTORY WARNS AGAINST IMPOSITION
By Baba Azare
Public Commentator and Political Analyst
One of the most destructive habits in Nigerian politics is the tendency of outgoing governors to treat political succession as a private transaction rather than a democratic process. Instead of allowing the electorate to determine who governs them next, some incumbents attempt to hand-pick loyalists whose primary responsibility, it appears, is to protect the outgoing administration's interests, preserve its political influence and shield its legacy from scrutiny.
In such a political arrangement, succession becomes less about public service and more about personal security. The state is treated like a political estate, the electorate is reduced to an audience, and the preferred successor is expected to function as a guarantor of continuity.
Bauchi State has witnessed this recurring political drama, and its history offers a compelling warning to anyone who believes that incumbency, financial muscle and political machinery can substitute for genuine popular acceptance.
A HISTORY OF FAILED POLITICAL ANOINTMENTS
During the transition from the administration of former Governor Ahmed Adamu Mu'azu, the attempt to position Nadada Umar as his preferred successor became part of Bauchi's political succession debate. That ambition ultimately failed to produce the desired outcome.
A similar political narrative emerged towards the end of Malam Isa Yuguda's administration, when Auwal Jatau, then a commissioner and now Deputy Governor, was associated with the succession calculations surrounding the outgoing government. That ambition also failed to deliver the anticipated political continuity.
These episodes underscore an enduring lesson: the political influence of an incumbent governor does not automatically translate into electoral acceptance of his preferred successor.
A governor may command the machinery of government, maintain an extensive political network and enjoy considerable financial resources. But none of these guarantees that voters will transfer their loyalty to a candidate simply because the incumbent wants them to.
BALA MOHAMMED AND THE SUCCESSION QUESTION
Today, Bauchi finds itself confronting another intense succession debate as Governor Bala Abdulkadir Mohammed approaches the end of his constitutionally permitted tenure.
The governor's political future may be constrained by the two-term limit, but the question of who succeeds him has become a major subject of political discussion.
Yakubu Adamu, the former Commissioner for Finance, has emerged as a figure in the state's succession calculations. Critics view the prospect of his emergence as an attempt to preserve the incumbent administration's political influence beyond its tenure.
The allegation that the governor is seeking to secure a third term indirectly through a preferred successor is politically consequential, but it remains a political interpretation rather than an established fact. Nevertheless, the question deserves serious public scrutiny: will Bauchi's next governor emerge through a genuinely competitive democratic process, or will the state's political machinery be mobilised to advance a predetermined outcome?
That is the fundamental issue confronting the electorate.
The danger lies not merely in supporting a particular candidate. Every politician has the right to promote a preferred successor within the law. The real problem arises when political loyalty is treated as a substitute for competence, independent leadership, accountability and the people's consent.
Bauchi cannot afford a succession arrangement in which the interests of an outgoing administration take precedence over the aspirations of its citizens.
CAN MONEY OVERPOWER THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE?
One of the most persistent assumptions in Nigerian politics is that a sufficiently powerful political structure, backed by access to public resources and private financial networks, can manufacture electoral victory.
That assumption deserves to be challenged.
Elections are not supposed to be auctions in which the highest spender purchases the right to govern. Nor should the state's financial resources become instruments for securing political succession.
Any allegation of the misuse of public funds or state institutions for partisan advantage must be supported by credible evidence and subjected to appropriate scrutiny. However, the broader principle is beyond dispute: public resources belong to the people and must never be treated as the private war chest of a political faction.
For Yakubu Adamu, the challenge is therefore not simply to secure the backing of influential political figures. He must convince Bauchi's electorate that he possesses the vision, independence, integrity and governing capacity required to lead the state.
Being a former commissioner's preferred candidate does not automatically make him unqualified. Equally, the endorsement of an incumbent governor cannot, by itself, establish his suitability for the highest office in the state.
Ultimately, his political credibility must be tested against his record, ideas, public acceptability and capacity to offer Bauchi a credible future.
THE ELECTORATE IS NOT A POLITICAL ESTATE
The most important lesson from Bauchi's political history is that succession cannot be reduced to the ambitions of a departing governor.
The people are not tenants in a political estate. They do not owe an outgoing administration an obligation to preserve its influence, and they should not be expected to endorse a candidate merely because the incumbent considers that candidate trustworthy.
Democracy requires a clear distinction between continuity and control.
Continuity can be beneficial when it preserves effective policies, strengthens institutions and sustains development programmes that serve the public interest. But continuity becomes dangerous when it is used to discourage competition, avoid accountability or create the impression that power must remain within a particular political circle.
Bauchi needs continuity of good policies, not necessarily continuity of political personalities. It needs institutional stability, not the permanent dominance of one political network. Above all, it needs a succession process in which candidates compete on their merits and voters retain the freedom to choose.
HISTORY DOES NOT GUARANTEE DEFEAT, BUT IT OFFERS A WARNING
It would be politically simplistic to assume that every preferred successor must fail. Political circumstances change, candidates differ, and an incumbent's endorsement can sometimes strengthen a candidate's prospects.
But it is equally dangerous to assume that a governor's popularity, political structure or financial resources will automatically guarantee victory for a chosen successor.
Bauchi's political history demonstrates why such assumptions should be treated with caution. Previous succession ambitions did not always produce the outcomes their promoters desired, and the present political contest should be judged on its own merits.
If the emerging succession debate is to serve the people, it must move beyond personality politics and expose the real choices before the state: development versus stagnation, accountability versus political protection, and democratic competition versus the temptation to predetermine the future.
The electorate must also resist the temptation to vote solely on the basis of political loyalty, ethnic or regional sentiment, financial inducement or the instructions of influential individuals.
The future of Bauchi belongs to its citizens, not to any outgoing governor, political family or succession project.
CONCLUSION: BAUCHI MUST CHOOSE ITS OWN FUTURE
Governor Bala Mohammed has the constitutional right to support a candidate of his choice, just as other political actors have the right to advance their preferred candidates. But no endorsement, no matter how powerful its source, should be mistaken for the consent of the electorate.
Yakubu Adamu, like every other aspirant, must earn the confidence of the people rather than rely solely on the strength of those promoting his candidacy.
The ultimate test will not be the size of a political war chest, the number of powerful endorsements or the intensity of campaign machinery. It will be whether Bauchi's voters believe that a candidate can govern independently, address their pressing needs and protect the public interest.
The message to the political establishment is unmistakable: a governor may nominate a successor, a party may endorse a candidate, and a political structure may mobilise its resources—but only the electorate can confer democratic legitimacy through a lawful election.
Bauchi must not become the private inheritance of any political establishment. Its next chapter must be written by its people.
The curse is not continuity itself. The curse is the belief that the people's choice can be predetermined.
Baba Azare is a public commentator and political analyst.
Email: buzayya@gmail.com