TINUBU DEFENDS REFORMS, WARNS AGAINST ‘ADDICTIVE SUBSIDIES’ AS NIGERIANS DEMAND RELIEF
......President says painful phase is over and Nigeria is entering an era of prosperity, but millions of households are still struggling with food, transport, jobs and purchasing power
By The Analyst Editorial Desk
ABUJA — October 1, 2026
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has mounted a fresh defence of his administration’s economic reforms, declaring that Nigeria has passed through the most painful phase of adjustment and warning against any attempt to return the country to what he described as “addictive subsidies.”
In his 66th Independence Anniversary address on Thursday, the President argued that the removal of petrol subsidy and the overhaul of the foreign-exchange system confronted economic distortions that successive administrations had postponed.
“Our reforms did not create the weaknesses in our economy. They confronted them,” Tinubu said, insisting that Nigeria must not abandon the reforms and return to policies that, in his assessment, merely postponed difficult decisions.
He said the economy had grown by more than four per cent in 2026, while oil and non-oil sectors had contributed to what he described as a period of renewed stability. He also pointed to lower inflation from its previous peak, stronger foreign reserves, improved foreign-exchange stability and reduced oil theft as evidence that the reforms were beginning to produce macroeconomic results.
But behind those improving headline indicators lies a much more complicated reality.
THE NUMBERS MAY BE IMPROVING. THE HOUSEHOLD PAIN HAS NOT DISAPPEARED
For millions of Nigerians, the central question is no longer whether Nigeria's macroeconomic indicators have improved.
It is whether the improvement is reaching the family kitchen.
The World Bank says Nigeria has made meaningful progress in restoring macroeconomic stability, with inflation easing, external and fiscal positions strengthening and growth remaining relatively robust.
But the same assessment carries a critical warning: household incomes have not fully recovered and poverty remains high.
The IMF's June 2026 assessment was similarly two-sided. It acknowledged that the reforms had strengthened macroeconomic stability and resilience, but estimated that poverty had reached 63 per cent under Nigeria's national poverty line and that 27 million Nigerians faced food insecurity in late 2025. The Fund also warned that higher food and transport costs could further aggravate poverty and food insecurity.
That is the uncomfortable side of the reform story.
Nigeria may be moving towards greater macroeconomic stability while ordinary Nigerians continue to experience an economy in which their money buys less, transportation consumes more of household income and food remains painfully expensive.
The World Bank's latest country assessment says food inflation disproportionately affects poorer households, which can spend as much as 70 per cent of their income on food. It also estimates that more than 60 per cent of Nigerians were living below the national poverty line in 2025.
THE SUBSIDY QUESTION IS NOT AS SIMPLE AS POLITICIANS MAKE IT
There is a legitimate economic argument behind the President's position.
The government says petrol subsidy removal has freed enormous resources for the Federation. Finance Minister Wale Edun's ministry reported that subsidy savings amounted to approximately ₦15.8 trillion between June 2023 and December 2025.
The argument is straightforward: money previously used to keep petrol artificially cheap can instead be deployed to infrastructure, social programmes, health, education and other productive purposes.
But there is another side.
For the average Nigerian, the removal of subsidy did not happen in isolation.
Petrol prices rose sharply. Transport costs increased. The cost of moving agricultural produce increased. Businesses faced higher operating expenses. Producers passed some of those costs to consumers.
The result was a vicious cost-of-living chain:
higher fuel costs → higher transportation costs → higher production costs → higher food prices → reduced household purchasing power.
That is why the debate cannot simply be reduced to “subsidy versus no subsidy.”
The real question is whether the resources saved from subsidy are being converted quickly and transparently enough into tangible improvements in the lives of Nigerians.
THE EXCHANGE-RATE REFORM: STABILITY AT WHAT SOCIAL COST?
The government's foreign-exchange reforms have also produced important changes.
The World Bank has acknowledged improvements in Nigeria's external position and foreign-exchange stability, while the IMF similarly recognised improved macroeconomic resilience.
But exchange-rate reform also created enormous short-term pressure.
A weaker naira made imported goods and inputs more expensive, affecting everything from machinery and medicines to food items and household products.
For businesses dependent on imported materials, the adjustment translated into higher production costs.
For households, it translated into a painful question:
If salaries do not rise as quickly as prices, what exactly does economic growth mean at the dinner table?
That question remains unanswered for many Nigerians.
GROWTH IS NOT THE SAME AS PROSPERITY
President Tinubu has now declared that Nigeria is moving from an “age of reform” into an “age of prosperity.”
That is an ambitious promise.
But prosperity cannot be measured solely by GDP growth, foreign reserves, exchange-rate stability or government revenue.
It must eventually be visible in the daily lives of Nigerians.
A prosperous economy should mean that parents can feed their children without skipping meals; workers can afford transportation; young Nigerians can find productive employment; farmers can produce without insecurity destroying their investments; businesses can obtain affordable credit; and families can pay for healthcare and education without being pushed deeper into poverty.
The World Bank has warned that Nigeria still faces a major employment challenge, with about 3.5 million people entering the labour force every year, while weak job creation and limited entrepreneurial opportunities continue to constrain household incomes.
That is the test awaiting the next phase of the Tinubu administration.
THE PRESIDENT'S BIGGEST POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC CHALLENGE
Tinubu says the emergency treatment is over.
Now comes the harder part.
Nigerians must begin to feel the recovery.
It is one thing to stabilise the balance sheet of government. It is another to stabilise the household budget.
It is one thing to increase government revenue. It is another to ensure that the additional revenue translates into cheaper transportation, affordable food, reliable electricity, productive jobs and accessible healthcare.
It is one thing to defend subsidy removal as economically necessary. It is another to demonstrate that the money saved is being used efficiently, transparently and in ways that materially improve citizens' welfare.
The President's warning against returning to “addictive subsidies” therefore opens a larger national debate.
Nigeria certainly cannot afford to repeat policies that created permanent fiscal distortions.
But Nigerians also cannot be asked indefinitely to endure hardship on the promise that prosperity is coming.
THE REAL TEST STARTS NOW
Tinubu's reform argument has received significant support from institutions such as the IMF and World Bank on the question of macroeconomic stabilisation. But those same institutions have repeatedly warned that poverty, food insecurity, weak household incomes and inadequate social protection remain serious problems.
That distinction matters.
Macroeconomic recovery and household recovery are not automatically the same thing.
Nigeria can have stronger reserves and still have hungry families.
Nigeria can record economic growth and still have unemployed graduates.
Nigeria can collect more revenue and still have citizens struggling to pay transport fares.
Nigeria can achieve exchange-rate stability and still have businesses closing because purchasing power has collapsed.
The next chapter of Tinubu's economic programme must therefore move beyond explaining why the reforms were necessary.
It must demonstrate how the gains are reaching Nigerians.
That is where the administration's promise of an “age of prosperity” will ultimately be judged—not by speeches, statistics or political slogans, but by what Nigerians can actually afford, earn, save and build.
For a country where millions have already paid what the government describes as the painful price of reform, the demand is increasingly simple:
Show the results.