NNPCL STAKE SALE: TINUBU GOVT FACES QUESTIONS OVER ALLEGED POST-2027 PLAN TO HAND MAJORITY CONTROL TO ‘CRONIES’
By The Analyst Investigative Desk
Fresh questions are being raised over the future ownership of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) following an allegation that the Bola Tinubu administration may seek to dispose of a majority stake in the national oil company to politically connected investors after the 2027 elections.
The allegation, attributed to an unnamed expert, has not been independently established by The Analyst Online Media. But it raises a fundamental question that Nigerians cannot afford to ignore: if the Federal Government intends to dilute its controlling interest in NNPCL, who exactly will be allowed to acquire the shares, under what valuation, through what process, and with what safeguards against political patronage?
The questions are particularly significant because the Federal Government has publicly moved towards deeper capital-market participation in NNPCL.
In August 2026, President Bola Tinubu reaffirmed his administration's commitment to reforming and eventually listing NNPCL on the Nigerian Exchange. The Nigerian Exchange Group said the proposed listing forms part of a broader capital-market strategy.
A listing, however, is not automatically synonymous with a secretive sale to political associates. The critical issue is how ownership would be transferred, who would qualify to participate, how the price would be determined and whether Nigerians would have a genuinely transparent opportunity to acquire shares.
THE ATIKU QUESTION RETURNS
The controversy also resurrects an argument that dominated Nigeria's political conversation before the 2019 elections.
In 2018, then-presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar openly proposed selling part of NNPC and privatising the country's refineries. Contemporary reporting described his position as a plan to sell part of NNPC and move towards private-sector participation.
At the time, the proposal attracted criticism from opponents who portrayed the planned partial sale of the national oil company as a potential transfer of a strategic national asset to private interests.
The irony today is difficult to overlook.
The same political establishment that once criticised proposals to transfer part of the national oil sector to private ownership must now answer questions about the direction of NNPCL under the current administration.
Indeed, Atiku later reiterated his position that NNPC and the refineries should be privatised through an LNG-style model, with government retaining 49 per cent and private investors holding 51 per cent.
That historical record matters because it demonstrates that the idea of majority private ownership of the national oil company did not originate with the current administration.
BUT BUHARI'S ERA CHANGED THE STRUCTURE
There is another important part of the history.
During Muhammadu Buhari's administration, the old NNPC was transformed into NNPC Limited under the Petroleum Industry Act framework. The company became a limited liability company, with the Federal Government remaining the sole shareholder at the time of reporting.
The transformation therefore created the corporate structure through which eventual shareholding, capital-market participation and possible dilution of government ownership could be contemplated.
This is where today's debate becomes particularly important.
Nigeria should not simply ask whether private capital should participate in NNPCL. The more consequential question is whether the Nigerian people will receive fair value for what they own.
If government ultimately decides to sell a substantial stake, Nigerians deserve to know:
- What percentage is being offered?
- What is NNPCL being valued at?
- Who appointed the valuation advisers?
- Will the shares be offered publicly on the Nigerian Exchange?
- Will Nigerian citizens have equal access to the offer?
- Will institutional investors be transparently selected?
- Will politically exposed persons and their proxies be subjected to enhanced disclosure?
- What independent body will supervise the transaction?
- How will conflicts of interest be prevented?
- Where will the proceeds of the sale go?
- Will Parliament and the public have access to the transaction documents?
These are not partisan questions. They are questions of public accountability.
‘CRONIES’ CLAIM REQUIRES EVIDENCE
The allegation that a future majority stake could be transferred to “cronies” is serious.
It should therefore not be treated as established fact without documentary evidence.
If there is a government plan, memorandum, transaction structure, valuation document, adviser appointment, investment proposal or other evidence showing that politically connected individuals are being positioned to acquire controlling interests, such evidence should be made public.
Conversely, if no such plan exists, the Federal Government and NNPCL should have little difficulty providing Nigerians with a clear explanation of their intended ownership structure.
Silence would only allow speculation to grow.
THE REFINERY PRECEDENT
The debate is also taking place against growing calls for private-sector participation in the nation's refining industry.
In February 2026, PENGASSAN publicly urged the Federal Government to sell a 51 per cent stake in the country's state-owned refineries, arguing for a model in which government retains minority ownership while private investors provide capital and operational expertise.
That is materially different from an allegation that a national asset could be transferred privately to favoured individuals.
The distinction is crucial.
Privatisation is a policy. Cronyism is an allegation about the manner and beneficiaries of that policy.
The first can be debated openly. The second requires evidence.
NIGERIANS HAVE SEEN THIS MOVIE BEFORE
Nigeria's history of privatisation and commercialisation has repeatedly demonstrated that the real controversy is often not whether government should reform a state enterprise, but who gets the asset, at what price, through what process and with what benefit to the public.
That is why any future NNPCL share sale must be subjected to exceptional transparency.
NNPCL is not an ordinary company in the public imagination. It sits at the centre of Nigeria's most strategically important natural resource and has historically been intertwined with the country's public finances.
The Petroleum Industry Act already provides a commercial framework for NNPCL. The company is expected to operate on a commercial basis, while the government remains entitled to its shareholder interests.
The transition from a wholly government-owned national oil company to a publicly traded enterprise could therefore be economically significant.
But the process must not become an opportunity for wealth transfer without public scrutiny.
FROM ATIKU'S ‘SELL NNPC’ TO TODAY'S NNPCL DEBATE
There is a legitimate historical irony here.
When Atiku proposed partial privatisation of NNPC before the 2019 election, his critics questioned the wisdom and consequences of selling part of a strategic national asset.
Years later, the country is discussing an NNPCL that has already been corporatised and whose eventual listing has now been publicly embraced by the Tinubu administration.
The question has therefore evolved.
It is no longer simply:
“Should NNPC be sold?”
It is:
“If Nigeria is going to sell shares in NNPCL, who will buy them, how much will Nigeria receive, and who ultimately benefits?”
That is the question Nigerians should insist on having answered before any major ownership transaction is concluded.
THE ANALYST'S POSITION
The Analyst Online Media believes the proposed evolution of NNPCL ownership deserves scrutiny beyond party politics.
If a transparent public listing is intended, let the government publish the framework.
If strategic investors are being considered, let the criteria be disclosed.
If a majority stake is contemplated, let Nigerians know the valuation and transaction structure.
And if there is genuinely no plan to transfer controlling ownership to politically connected individuals after 2027, the government should say so clearly.
Nigeria's oil wealth belongs to the Nigerian people.
Any attempt to restructure ownership of NNPCL must therefore be judged not by the identity of the administration proposing it, but by the transparency of the process, the value received by the federation and the safeguards protecting the national interest.
The era when Nigerians discover the details of major asset transactions only after the contracts have been signed should be over.
The next NNPCL chapter must be written in the open.